The big fear that's making parties rush to support Vijay

When Vijay's Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, just 10 short of a majority, it did not trigger uncertainty. It triggered a scramble. From the Congress to the AIADMK and a host of regional parties, who were once adversaries of the TVK, are appearing almost desperate to align with Vijay. The question of who Vijay will choose as his alliance partner to form the government is answered as the Congress ditched the DMK for the TVK. The larger question is why the Congress, AIADMK, and a host of regional parties are rushing to support Vijay.

The suspense of who would join Vijay's TVK began soon after the election results on May 4, when the TVK emerged as the single largest party, but short of the majority mark. While the verdict established Vijay as the central figure in the state's political landscape, it also triggered a flurry of behind-the-scenes negotiations as parties weighed their options to support TVK.

That parties tripped over themselves in rushing to support reveals their existential fear. It's not just about political relevance. If a government isn't formed, and an election is held, the TVK is best poised to return with a landslide. There will be no space left for these parties then. We will discuss more about this later, and such an example that unfolded in 2013, hundreds of kilometres away from Tamil Nadu.

WHY VIJAY'S FATHER INVITED CONGRESS AS COALITION PARTNER

It was Vijay's father, SA Chandrasekhar, who triggered the first major outreach. He invited the Congress to join hands with TVK soon after the results were announced. Chandrasekhar framed the alliance as an opportunity for the revival of the Congress. "Vijay could help restore the political relevance Congress once enjoyed in Tamil Nadu," he said.

The Congress, however, did not respond immediately on whether they were interested in supporting Vijay. The party initially appeared cautious, reflecting internal deliberations over the risks and rewards of backing a relatively new political force and leaving behind the DMK, its longstanding ally and major Dravidian party.

The hesitation gave way to movement only after a high-level meeting between senior leaders of the Congress, such as AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, and Kerala MP KC Venugopal. Following the meeting, the party's central leadership in New Delhi authorised its five MLAs in Tamil Nadu to assess the ground situation and take a final call on extending support to TVK.

Congress had some demands for the TVK to support it. But Congress has also offered that it would bring on board its alliance partners like the VCK, DMDK, CPI, CPI(M), and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). If these many parties form a coalition with Vijay's TVK, it could comfortably pass the majority mark of 118.

BJP ALLY AIADMK TOO RUSHES TO SUPPORT VIJAY'S TVK

Even as Congress weighed its decision, the political equations grew more complex with signals from the AIADMK to support Vijay. The AIADMK hinted at a willingness to explore an alliance with TVK, adding a new dimension to the unfolding power play.

The situation escalated further on Tuesday night when senior AIADMK leader Leema Rose Martin publicly confirmed that talks were underway between the AIADMK and the TVK. Martin's son-in-law, Aadhav Arjuna, is known to be one of Vijay's key political aides and is believed to be directly involved in the negotiations from the TVK's side. Adding another layer to the intrigue, her son serves as an MLA from Puducherry and is aligned with the NDA.

With multiple parties now circling the TVK, the race to back Vijay has turned into a high-stakes political contest. What began as a straightforward post-election scenario has quickly evolved into a complex negotiation, where every alliance decision could reshape the balance of power in Tamil Nadu.

According to news reports, a coordinated effort is picking up pace at Panaiyur, where Vijay is holding a series of meetings in his residence with key members of his inner circle and senior officials. Those present reportedly included Aadhav Arjuna, Bussy Anand, John Arokiasamy, Arun Raj, former AIADMK leader K Sengottaiyan, CTR Nirmal Kumar, and VS Babu.

WHY ARE PARTIES IN TAMIL NADU RUSHING TO SUPPORT VIJAY?

The rush to back Vijay is being driven less by ideology and more by a shared anxiety of an existential crisis that many parties in Tamil Nadu are struggling to navigate.

For Congress, the stakes are deeply historical. The party last ruled the state of Tamil Nadu in 1967, and in the nearly six decades since, power has remained firmly in the hands of the two dominant Dravidian forces, the DMK and the AIADMK.

Even in parliamentary elections, the Congress has largely been reduced to a junior partner of the DMK, often managing only single-digit seat tallies out of Tamil Nadu's 39 Lok Sabha constituencies. Aligning with Vijay is being seen within the party as a rare opportunity to break free from this old dependency, revive its independent political identity, and re-emerge as a credible third force in the state.

The AIADMK's concerns are even more immediate. Having lost power to the DMK in 2021, the party now finds itself further weakened after finishing third in the 2026 Assembly elections. If the AIADMK remains out of power, it risks the completion of spending a full decade in the opposition, with the next real electoral opportunity only arriving in 2031.

This prolonged absence is raising fears within the AIADMK of organisational decline, cadre erosion, and diminishing voter relevance. Its performance in Lok Sabha elections since 2014 is all-time poor as the party managed only single-digit wins.

WHY BJP MIGHT WANT ALLY AIADMK TO JOIN HANDS WITH TVK

According to the Indian Express newspaper, the BJP leadership in New Delhi is uneasy about the possibility of a Congress, Communist-backed TVK government in Chennai, particularly in the context of Congress's recent resurgence in neighbouring Kerala. There is a perception that the BJP would prefer the AIADMK to support Vijay, rather than allow Congress and Left parties to anchor a new ruling coalition.

Internal instability is another factor weighing on the AIADMK. The party's General Secretary, Edappadi K Palaniswami, has already held discussions with the TVK, as Vijay's camp has actively sought the party's support. However, sources indicate that if these talks fail to produce a consensus, a section of AIADMK MLAs could break ranks and extend support to the TVK independently, even at the cost of triggering a split within the party.

Regional parties, too, are navigating their own compulsions. Parties like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) have long positioned themselves as alternatives to the dominant Dravidian parties. While many of them emphasise Tamil sub-nationalism and identity politics, the reality of Tamil Nadu's alliance-driven electoral system has forced these regional parties into periodic tie-ups with larger players like the DMK and AIADMK.

PARTIES DON'T WANT DELHI-LIKE SITUATION IN TAMIL NADU

The more imminent risk that the parties see is the rerun of a Delhi-like situation in Tamil Nadu. If Vijay doesn't get to form a government, an election would be held. There is a very high chance of Vijay's TVK returning to power with a huge mandate, making these parties redundant for the next five years at least.

Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) National Convenor Arvind Kejriwal's political rise was due to the events that unfolded after the 2013 Delhi Assembly election. The election resulted in a hung Assembly in Delhi. No party could achieve the majority of 36 seats in the 70-member house.

The BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 31 seats but declined to form a government. The debutant AAP, with 28 seats, stepped in after the Congress offered outside support with its eight MLAs. The Congress was the party that had ruled for the previous 15 years.

Kejriwal was sworn in as Chief Minister on December 28, 2013, but his government lasted just 49 days.

He resigned in February 2014, after failing to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill, blaming both the BJP and the Congress for blocking it. The resignation led to President's Rule, but also boosted Kejriwal's anti-establishment image. Riding on this momentum, Kejriwal's AAP returned stronger in 2015, leading the AAP to a historic landslide victory with 67 seats. The AAP rule in Delhi continued till 2025, for a decade.

This is the situation that the parties want to avoid. They also want to share power and remain relevant for at least five years. That's why there's this scramble to support Vijay's TVK. In the current scenario in Tamil Nadu politics, Vijay's rise has created a new centre of power. The power that parties cannot afford to ignore. Supporting him is not just a strategic choice but a political necessity.

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